2009/10 Season Has Begun and Cable Is In The Lead

The game is on with the commencement of the 09/10 Broadcast Season and Ad Supported Cable is in the lead with 56 percent share of total TV viewing – generating a 14 share point gap with the Broadcast Seven Affiliates.

Broadcast Seven continued to slide despite airing five more premieres as share level fell to a 42.5 – lowest level to date during any premiere week. Broadcasts’ decline was primarily driven to CBS’s (down 6%), NBC’s (down 6%), and CW’s (down 23%) feeble performances this past week.

Premiere Week’s HH Primetime Ratings

AD-SUPPORTED CABLE BROADCAST 7 AFFILS
HH HH HH HH HH HH
(OOO) US AA% SHARE (OOO) US AA% SHARE CABLE'S SHARE SPREAD
09/10 09/21/2009-09/27/2009 38594 33.6 56.1 29225 25.3 42.5 13.6
08/09 09/22/2008-09/28/2008 40449 35.3 57.2 30445 26.6 43.1 14.1
07/08 09/24/2007-09/30/2007 35701 31.6 52.3 31386 27.9 46.0 6.3
06/07 09/18/2006-09/24/2006 35630 32.0 52.1 33990 30.5 49.8 2.3
05/06 09/19/2005-09/25/2005 37436 34.0 54.3 34104 31.0 49.5 4.8

Source: CAB analysis of Nielsen Galaxy Live+SD. Primetime=M-Sa 8-11p & Su 7-11pm.

Premiere week started off to a shaky start with Broadcasts’ viewership down among younger viewers. Both young men and women across the board fled while Persons 25-34 erosion was mainly driven by a loss of males. In fact, Persons 50+ was the only age group to experience a slight growth (+1.6%) this week versus year ago – mainly due to an influx of females.

Premiere Week: Broadcast Seven Affils Viewership (OOO) % Change

P2-11 P12-17 P18-24 P25-34 P35-49 P50-64 P65+
BROADCAST 7 AFFILS -13.9% -14.7% -10.5% -8.1% -6.5% 1.3% 2.0%
F2-11 F12-17 F18-24 F25-34 F35-49 F50-64 F65+
BROADCAST 7 AFFILS -18.2% -14.5% -12.1% -5.9% -7.2% 2.5% 2.6%
M2-11 M12-17 M18-24 M25-34 M35-49 M50-64 M65+
BROADCAST 7 AFFILS -9.6% -14.8% -8.1% -10.8% -5.7% -0.4% 1.1%

Source: CAB analysis of Nielsen Galaxy Live+SD (OOO). 9/21-9/27/09 v 9/22-9/28/08. Primetime=M-Sa 8-11p & Su 7-11pm.

With majority of the Broadcast networks laying their cards out, telecasting their premieres, who is going to take home the center pot? It is too premature to tell which show will succeed and which will fold but the odds do not fare too well for Broadcast. With five more premieres this season, the seven nets are only averaging a 2.9 among advertiser’s most coveted target A18-49 – pretty much on par with last season.

Primetime Premiere Averages By Network For First Week Of New Season

08/09 09/10 09/10 v. 08/09
# of A18-49 # of A18-49 (+/-) # of (+/-)
Premieres AA% Premieres AA% Premieres A18-49 AA%
ABC 9 5.00 12 4.10 3 -18%
CBS 20 3.20 24 3.10 4 -3%
NBC 8 3.50 7 2.00 -1 -43%
FOX 4 4.00 7 4.40 3 10%
CW 0 n/a 2 0.75 2 n/a
MNT 1 0.80 0 n/a -1 n/a
ION 7 0.08 2 0.24 -5 200%
AVG 49 3.0 54 2.9 5 -3%

Source: CAB analysis of Nielsen Galaxy Live+SD. 9/21-9/27/09 v 9/22-9/28/08. Primetime=M-Sa 8-11p & Su 7-11pm.

High stakes - do you call or bet? With more than three quarters of Broadcasts’ Big 4 programming schedule being comprised of return programming – its safe to say viewers will continue to sample other programming options as return programming has been underperforming last year’s levels. In fact, 58% of Broadcasts’ Big 4 return programming is down versus year ago with ABC leading the way.

New v. Return Programming Composition Of Total Broadcast Schedule: Primetime

% Composition
Of Total Schedule
ABC NEW 23%
ABC RETURNING 77%
CBS NEW 16%
CBS RETURNING 84%
NBC NEW 39%
NBC RETURNING 61%
FOX NEW 13%
FOX RETURNING 87%
TOTAL NEW 23%
TOTAL RETURNING 77%

Source: CAB analysis of Nielsen Galaxy. 9/21-9/27/09 v 9/22-9/28/08. Primetime=M-Sa 8-11p & Su 7-11pm. Analyzed on half hour blocks – number of half hours which comprise new v. return programming.

Number of Broadcast Return Programs Down v. YAG: A18-49 AA%,Primetime

# of Pgms % Of Returning Pgms Down Out Of
Down v. YAG Total Schedule
ABC 6 75%
CBS 8 53%
NBC 4 50%
FOX 5 56%
Total 23 58%

Source: CAB analysis of Nielsen Galaxy Live+SD A18-49 AA%. 9/21-9/27/09 v 9/22-9/28/08. Primetime=M-Sa 8-11p & Su 7-11pm.

Among A18-49, NBC’s Football and ABC’s Grey’s Anatomy took top honors but both were down slightly from year ago. Only new program to rank in Top 10 was Fox’s Cleveland placing seventh in the rank. ABC’s Desperate Housewives fell to ninth spot – down 34% from year ago.

Broadcasts’ Top 10 Primetime Programs: A18-49

09/10 08/09 09/10 v. 08/09
Rank Program Net T/C A18-49 AA% A18-49 AA% (+/-)
1 NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL NBC 2 6.8 6.9 -0.1
2 GREY'S ANATOMY-THU 9PM ABC 2 6.7 7.4 -0.7
3 HOUSE FOX 2 6.7 5.1 1.6
4 CBS NFL NATL POST GUN CBS 1 6.2 n/a n/a
5 FAMILY GUY FOX 2 5.2 4.5 0.7
6 SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK NBC 2 4.9 4.5 0.4
7 CLEVELAND FOX 1 4.9 n/a n/a
8 NCIS CBS 2 4.8 3.6 1.2
9 DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES ABC 2 4.7 7.1 -2.4
10 BIG BANG THEORY, THE CBS 2 4.7 3.6 1.1

As the game persists with players raising and calling their bets, one thing is for sure – Ad-Supported Cable will continue to shatter records and set the standard of achievement across the board. Ad-Supported Cable is a sure bet!

Premiere Week (138 KB)
sitemap xml